(More on Mega-trends - 2022 - cont. 1)
1. Adapting to Changing Climate
Introduction
"...extreme and unprecedented weather events are increasing in their frequency and scale of impact......Extreme weather conditions that exceed the bounds of historical norms and concurrent climate hazards are likely to compound the overall climate risk..."
CSIRO, 2022
Impacts of this megatrend
i) The cost of natural disasters
"...natural disasters cost the global economy an estimated $390.5 billion in 2020..."
CSIRO, 2022
Natural disasters are listed in the top 10 global risks and are linked with extreme weather, climate change, human environmental activities, loss of biodiversity, etc; they can have a negative impact on biodiversity, ie killing or displacing flora and fauna.
ii) health impacts of climate change
Climate change has been declared a health emergency by American, British and Australian Medical Associations.
It is expected that we will
"...experience more heat extremes and fewer cold extremes, longer and more severe droughts and fires seasons, continued sea level rises and ocean warming and acidification, prolonged marine heat waves, and fewer, but more intense, cyclones in the coming decades..."
CSIRO, 2022
This is expected to have a negative impact on public health.
iii) preparing to live in a hotter world
"...Global extreme temperature events are reaching unprecedented levels..."
Already some cities in Pakistan and the United Arab Emirates, temperatures
"...exceeding the human body's threshold for survivability in humid heat conditions..."
CSIRO, 2022
Heat-related deaths are expected to grow significantly:
"...heatwaves can also damage infrastructure and cause operational problems for critical services such as transportation, health care and energy supply..."
CSIRO, 2022
iv) declining water quantity, quality and availability
"...although water demand is increasing, reductions in the availability of water resources and pollution are reducing the amount and quality of future water resources..."
CSIRO, 2022
Rainfall patterns are changing in Australia
"...a long-term shift towards lower rainfall in the south west and above average rainfall in the north......expected to lead to an increase in flash flooding in northern Australia and drought conditions in southern and eastern Australia..."
CSIRO, 2022
v) impact of climate change on critical infrastructure
Much infrastructure like roads, rail, etc are built for stable climatic conditions and cannot handle wild fluctuations; this will greatly increase operational and maintenance costs.
"...Climate change can also impact airline flights: stronger winds increase the frequency and intensity of air turbulence, high air temperature impair aircraft take-off performance and rising sea levels pose a risk for airports built near sea level..."
CSIRO, 2022
vi) insuring against climate change
Regions, like floodplains, coastal areas, etc that are more susceptible to the impacts of climate change are paying higher insurance premiums than elsewhere, ie around double
vii) climate-driven mass migration
It is estimated that the significant increase in extremely hot zones globally, with around 3.5 billion people impacted plus the rising sea level, will result in a significant wave of climate-driven global migration.
viii) pressure brewing under the ocean's surface
"...Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations are increasing ocean acidity. Phytoplankton are critical to the carbon cycle, but under acidic conditions they struggle to build strong cell walls. This makes them lighter and less likely to sink to the seabed as a carbon store. Similar impacts are observed for coral, mussels and oysters. These pressures are compounded by the impact of recreational vessels, foreign marine species and plastic pollution...... over 100 marine species are migrating south to cooler waters..."
CSIRO, 2022