Four Ps

Use the 4 Ps ( possible, plausible, probable & preferable) to look at the future, ie

i) probable (past events that are likely to recur, eg using long-term, historical rainfall patterns to forecast the likelihood of future rainfall (within set levels of confidence), financial booms and busts like tulip mania in 17th century , South Sea bubble in 18th century, Great Depression of 1930s, Asian currency crisis in the 1990s, NASDAQ technology crisis in 2000s, GFC in 2008, etc)

ii) plausible (events that may not have occurred and are not necessarily feasible to occur; evidence-based on logic and reason, eg the emergence of online retailing in the late 20th century was a plausible event with the development of the Internet and associated functions like websites, credit cards payments, electronic banking, encryption technology, transport and logistics systems to deliver goods, smart phones, etc)

iii) possible (anything that potentially could happen in the future, irrespective of probability and unknown consequences, eg aliens visiting earth, increasing human lifespan, etc; unknown unknowns)

iv) preferable (the desirable pathway of change; where foresight (what might happen) makes changes in your selected strategy (what should we do about it); making unknowns knowable)
Four stages of foresight study (systematically exploring the future)

"...To see the future we need inside to understand pattern change, ascertain their importance, deduce likely future scenarios and then make wise choices......history provides critical insights about the future..."

Stefan Hajkowicz, 2015

i) environmental scan (exhaustive search of the signal trends potentially relevant to decision-makers; cast a wide net seeking relevant information)

ii) validating and prioritising (identify trends and risks that are happening and are important)

iii) narrative of the future (evidence-based, coherent and compelling story)

iv) communicate the findings (telling the story that connects to the audience)

 

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