S-Curve on Technology (Hype Cycle)

Hype Cycle of Emerging Technologies (Gartner)

It is a variation of the S curve, ie
"...a graphical representation of maturity and adoption of technologies and applications, and how they are potentially relevant to solving real business problems and exploiting new opportunities..."
Gartner, 2020

Cycle (5 phases - see diagram below)

1. Innovation Trigger (potential technology breakthrough appears; public awareness starts; usually no usable product exist; an unproven commercial viability)

2. Peak of inflated expectations (early publicity around a number of stories of success and often, failures; some commercial interest)

3. Trough of Disillusionment (interest decreases as experiments and implementation fail to deliver; organisational changes;
"...Investments continue only if the surviving providers improve their products to the satisfaction of early adopters..."
Gartner, 2020

4. Slope of Enlightenment (more opportunities for using the technology developed and understood; improved products developed; more fringe players involved than mainstream organisations)

5. Plateau of Productivity (mainstream adoption increases; business viability defined; technology' broad market appeal and relevance understood)

Graphical Presentation of Cycle (including some examples)



An example - digital marketing and advertising (2018)




Another example of Hype Cycle




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