. There are some events that you are sure of, ie the sun rising each morning; other events that are considered impossible, like the Pacific Ocean freezing all at once. On the other hand, there are many events that will have a degree of probability to occur, eg rise and fall of stock market.

. Understanding statistical annoyances like correlation and regression is not easy for the brain. It involves matching predictions to the evidence and is not intuitively done.


. Probability reflects a likelihood that is related to uncertainty, propensity, plausibility, vagueness and surprise

. When you have doubts about the quality of evidence, you need to engage the executive function of the brain - which requires effort

. Bayesian statistics - it looks at the logic of how people change their minds in the light of evidence. It specifies that prior beliefs should be combined with the diagnostic analysis of evidence, ie the degree to which it favours the hypothesis over the alternative. It can be summarized

"...Anchor your judgment on a probability of an outcome on a plausible base rate and question the diagnosticity of your evidence..."

Daniel Kahneman 2012

Conjunction Fallacy

. Conjunction fallacy (people commit to judging a conjunction of 2 events; it can be described as a conflict between intuition and logic

"...Representativeness belongs to a cluster of closely related basic assessments that are likely to be generated together. The most representative outcome combines with the personality description to produce the most coherent story. The most coherent stories are not necessarily the most probable, but they are plausible, and the notion of coherence, plausibility, and probability are easily confused by the unwary..."

Daniel Kahneman 2012

. Question phrased as "how many" makes you think of individuals but when it is rephrased "as what percentage" it does not


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