Characteristic Of Routine Focus Of The Brain

. Generates impressions, feelings and inclinations that, if reinforced, become beliefs, attitudes and intentions

. Operates automatically and quickly, with little or no effort, and no sense of voluntary control

. Can be programmed to mobilise attention when a particular pattern is detected

. Executes skilled responses and generates skilled reactions after adequate training

. Creates a coherent pattern of activated ideas in associative memory

. Links a sense of cognitive ease to illustrations of truth, pleasant feelings and reduced vigilance

. Distinguishes the surprising from the normal

. Infers and invents causes and intentions

. Neglects ambiguity and suppresses doubt

. Is biased to believe and confirm

. Exaggerates emotional consistency (halo effect)

. Focuses on existing evidence and ignores absent evidence (wysiata)

. Generates a limited set of basic assessments

. Represents sets by norms and prototypes; does not integrate

. Matches intensities across scales, eg size to loudness

. Computes more than intended (mental shot gun)

. Sometimes substitutes an easy answer for a difficult one (heuristics)

. Is more sensitive to changes than states (prospect theory )

. Overweight low probabilities

. Shows diminishing sensitivity to quantity (psychophysics)

. Responds more strongly to losses than to gains (loss aversion)

. Frames decision problems narrowly, in isolation from one another

Intuitive Predictions, etc

. Intuitive predictions tend to be overconfident and overly extreme. To handle this bias, we need to know the baseline and evaluate the quality of the evidence.

"...A preference for unbiased prediction is justified if all errors are treated alike, regardless of their direction..."

Daniel Kahneman 2012

. In general terms, your intuition will deliver predictions that are too extreme and you will put too much faith in them.

 

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