Certain Level Of Predictability

Much of organisational theory and practice assumes that a certain level of predictability and order exists in the world. This approach encourages simplification that is useful in all ordered circumstances. However, with the world becoming more unpredictable and complex, circumstances change, and simplifications are not adequate to handle the ensuing disorder. There is a need to redefine the frameworks about the nature of the relationship between cause and effect. Four of these - simple, complicated, complex and chaotic - require situations to be analysed and then responded in conventionally appropriate ways. The fifth - disorder - applies when it is unclear which of the other 4 contexts is predominant (more detail see common management errors)

Each context requires different actions. Simple and complicated contexts exist in an orderly universe, where cause-and-effect relationships are perceptible and right answers can be determined based on the facts. Complex and chaotic contexts are unordered - there is no immediate apparent relationship between cause and effect, and the way forward is determined by identifying emerging patterns. The ordered world revolves around fact-based management; the unordered world requires adaptive leadership.

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