I) Decision-Making

. Most decisions are based on beliefs concerning the likelihood of uncertain events occurring, eg future value of the dollar, the outcome of an election, etc. Sometimes these beliefs concerning uncertain events are expressed in numerical form as odds or subjective probabilities. How is this done, ie assessing the probability of an uncertain event? Usually people rely on a limited number of principles to reduce the complex task of assessing probabilities and predicting values to mental operations. Unfortunately, this can lead to severe and systematic errors as it is based on subjective assessment, data with limited validity which is processed according to the heuristic rules, eg the reliance on clarity to determine distance is a common bias. When visibility is good and the object is seen clearly, it is thought to be closer than when visibility is poor and the object harder to see.

. Gossip

"...There is a direct link from more precise gossip at the water cooler to better decisions. Decision-makers are sometimes better able to imagine the voices of present gossipers and future critics than to hear the hesitant voice of their own doubts. They will make better choices when they trust their critics to be sophisticated and fair, and when they expect their decision to be judged by how it was made, not only by how it turned out..."

Daniel Kahneman 2012

 

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